The impact of inflow on the output both instantaneously and retrospectively is calculated by first creating secondary predictors of the inflow that are both offset in time and smoothed by sliding mean values. These are used as explanatory variables together with MPt in a regression whose settings are shown below (you can find out more about the regression under the Aiolos and Cilia models). To disable the regression entirely, “Max model size” can be set to -1.
•Max model size -1: Regression is disconnected. The forecast is made only by the statistical component of Achelous. Although the runoff is used to find common intervals. To rule out the runoff set runoff factor to 0.
•Max model size 0: Constant forecast
•Max model size 1: One explaining variable. Most probably the statistical component will be the first explaining variable. The forecast will be scaled with a constant due to the regression.
•Max model size 2-5: A number of explaining variables are used.